Supermadmajority
Democrats don legislative brass knuckles in attempt to save biggest tax hike in Oregon's history
When Oregon Democrats secured a tax-hiking supermajority in the House of Representatives via a post-election day surge of votes in Salem and Woodburn-based House District 22 last year, it seemed the path of the 2025 session’s revenue infusion was, if not easy, at least clear. Democrats had already secured a 3/5 supermajority in the Senate. With the House in hand, Democrats needed nary a Republican vote to raise taxes.
And then Democrats and the public sector unions that animate the party got greedy. Apparently forgetting that literally no one likes the Oregon Department of Transportation, they sought billions in new revenue for the agency via a 37.5% increase in the state gas tax, big hikes in licensing and registration fees, and a host of other fee increases, all of which would be paid directly by Oregonians regardless of income, and felt the most by Oregonians of limited means. Equity shmequity.
Some relatively moderate Democrats in the legislature got nervous. State Senator Mark Meek (D-Lake Oswego), fresh off the Meek Tweak that secured his vote for a union-touted bill to pay workers to strike, signaled his opposition to the $15 billion-over-10-years tax bill. So did Rep. Paul Evans (D-Independence). It now appears there were a handful of other Democrats from potentially competitive districts who shared the concern.
In response, last week, Democratic leadership lashed out on multiple fronts in a desperate and dramatic attempt to restore party discipline and steward their troubled tax titan across the finish line before they are constitutionally required to close up the legislative shop a week from today.
Senate President Rob Wagner kicked Meek off the committee
Meek’s opposition presented the most immediate problem for Democrats. He served on the curiously named Joint Committee on Transportation Reinvestment, which Democrats created this session for the sole purpose of moving and approving the tax bill. (To “reinvest” in something, there had to have first been a disinvestment in it, and that never happened).
If Meek voted no, as he said he would, the bill would never get out of committee. Not a problem; if you don’t like the electorate you have, change the electorate, the saying apparently goes. Senate President Rob Wagner (D-Lake Oswego) simply pulled Meek from the committee to which he appointed him earlier this year, and put himself on in his stead. In the past, when Democratic leadership have yanked committee members due to noncompliance, as with chronic apostate then-Democrat and then-Senator Betsy Johnson during the cap and trade fight a few years ago, they’ve done so relatively quietly. Not Wagner. He made sure everyone knew who was in charge.
Wagner’s powerplay appeared not to sit well with other Democratic legislators who identify as moderate, which generally means they represent districts Republicans could conceivably win. According to Oregon Public Broadcasting, Rep. Annessa Hartman (D-Gladstone) took to Instagram to decry the Meek Tweak II: “We are here to elevate the voices of our constituents and we are saying NO to insane tax increases!! And this is what happens! Shame.”
OPB reported at least five other moderate House Democrats joined Hartman, none of whom serve on the committee, in Friday’s committee meeting on the bill, in an apparent expression of disapproval. Nonetheless, Wagner’s vote provided the margin needed to pass the bill out of committee. The House is expected to take up the bill early this coming week.
Rep. Hoa Nguyen reappears
Rep. Hoa Nguyen (NB: her name contains accent marks that I do not know how to replicate) (D-Portland) announced in February she had been diagnosed with Stage 4, or metastatic cancer. Nguyen had been absent from the House floor since her announcement, reportedly for the purpose of receiving treatment for her advanced form of cancer. Until Friday.
Friday, Nguyen appeared on the House floor, “surrounded by many of her colleagues and staff wearing face masks,” according to Oregon Capital Chronicle. The masks were apparently a nod to the fact many people with advanced cancer have weakened immune systems from the cancer and the treatment for it.
The Chronicle reported Nguyen said in a brief floor statement, “I felt like I have a second chance at life now, by some miracle, whatever, all the prayers and affirmations really help.”
Nguyen’s self-described miraculous recovery is important because Democrats will need her vote to pass the tax bill in the House if all Republicans continue to oppose it. It also signals to tax tepid Democrats they may not be able to rely on Nguyen’s absence to render any Democratic “no” votes meaningless for the outcome of the bill.
Male Democratic Committee Chair “yells” at female Republican in tense meeting
That committee meeting we discussed earlier contained more fireworks than Wagner’s taking Meek’s place. According to the Salem Statesman Journal, committee co-chair Sen. Chris Gorsek (D-Gresham) “yelled” at committee member Rep. Shelly Boshart Davis (R-Albany) after she said the tax bill was “grossly irresponsible.”
According to the Statesman Journal, Gorsek interrupted Boshart Davis to shout, “You are impugning all of us who have worked on that bill, so stop with that.”
Video of the exchange shows Boshart Davis continued to speak, while Gorsek loudly reprimanded her, “You’ve made your point, Representative.” Gorsek’s co-chair, Rep. Susan McLain (D-Forest Grove) intervened to stop the exchange.
Democrats “gut and stuff” bill to let them write ballot title for referendum
As I covered last week, opponents of the tax bill have raised nearly $200,000 for a referendum on the bill should it pass the legislature and be signed by the Governor. Such a referendum would give Oregonians a chance to vote to repeal the law, which they are likely to do if given the chance.
To whittle that chance down a bit, last Wednesday, House Democratic leadership amended a previously inocuous bill, HB 3390, to allow a Democrat-appointed joint committee to write the ballot title and explanatory statement for a referendum on the tax bill. The ballot title and explanatory statement, which every voter sees on his or her ballot, can materially affect the outcome of a ballot measure or referendum, and both opponents and proponents covet the chance to influence the language.
Earlier this session, I wrote about the practice, called “gut and stuff,” of introducing inocuous bills for the purpose of completely replacing the original text with a big amendment to help Democrats out of a late-session scrape. The House passed the gutted and stuffed HB 3390 Friday. Presumably the Senate will take it up this week.
It’s crunch time
As we’ve seen, last week Democratic leadership wielded any and all procedural tools at hand in an effort to protect their tax hike from doubtful Democrats, the possible absence of a cancer-stricken Democrat, the opinion of a Republican on the committee of jurisdiction, and petulant children, i.e. voters, who might need a nudge from Democrats to make sure democracy works the way Democrats want it to work.
Not later than a week from today, the legislature will have adjourned. It will either have voted to approve the largest tax increase in Oregon history, or it will have not.
Feelings have been hurt; processes have been impugned; miracles have happened; reprimands have been made.
No one knows how this is going to turn out, which is surely not where the supermajority wanted to be in the final week of session.
Terrific reporting--far beyond anything else in the Oregon press.
It has now transcended ODOT (it never really was about fixing the lamentable roads), but rather about discipline and power. It's the mother's milk of politics in this state, since special interest, nonprofit, and union money has nowhere else to go. The Dems will try to rejigger it--another "tweek," but it will be similar enough to the original to keep the party's rep for ruthlessness (a longtime speciality of our guv) alive. Parties don't run any other way; if they do, they're in deep trouble (see, UK, Conservative, party of).
There may be some folks in the Democratic party who understand that looting a state (a la NYC, CA) leads to crappy demographics and out-migration. You can finesse lots of things in politics, but the feet-voting numbers are irrefutable. And they already look bad. Not everyone is entranced with seashores and fir trees; they like making money and have fungible skills. Bye-bye.
What this state needs right now is a brave, moderate, media-savvy, human to embody the opposition to what has become a tawdry, arrogant, petty tyranny. Any nominees?
And now Tek is leaving. The original start of silicon forest. Intel laying off thousands more. And the oligarchy democrats want to keep taxing us. My counter is that every single oligarch in Salem that votes for this must at all times either ride a bike or take public transportation every where they go. No matter what. No vehicle ownership. No Uber. Only public transportation every where, walk or bike. Put into practice what you push on us petulant children.