The pivot precinct

Marion County's Precinct 350, in Salem, bucks local and national trends to give OR Dems a supermajority in the House of Representatives. Why?

Marion County, Oregon’s Precinct 350, in Salem, is at the heart of a closely watched House race that has Democrats poised to regain a supermajority in the state’s legislature.

Democrats are poised to regain a supermajority in Oregon’s House of Representatives in large part due to a late surge of votes for the Democratic candidate in a Willamette Valley district originating from Precinct 350 in Salem, Marion County Clerk records show.

In House District 22 ballots counted by even-candidates-go-to-bed time election night, Republican incumbent Tracy Cramer led Democrat Lesly Munoz narrowly. Ballots counted since election day have given Munoz a 149-vote lead. A Munoz win would deliver Democrats enough seats (2/3) in both houses of the legislature to raise taxes without any GOP votes. The GOP broke down the Democrats’ supermajority in both houses in 2022. Democrats have regained their supermajority in the senate and are poised to retake it in the House based on the current count in HD 22.

I spent some time over the past few days analyzing precinct-level vote counts in HD 22 and a list of 691 voters in the district whose ballots were initially rejected because the signatures on the back of the ballot envelopes did not match the signatures for the voters on file with the clerk’s office. Precinct 350, one of 19 precincts constituting HD 22, kept jumping off the screen. Munoz’s lead, and then some, can be attributed entirely to a surge in Democratic votes in that one precinct.

Please bear in mind as you read this that I don’t know whether anything improper happened in HD 22. I certainly don’t have evidence that would justify a legal challenge to the outcome of that race. However, the peculiarities of HD 22 and Precinct 350 provide a unique lens through which we can evaluate Oregon’s voting system.

Precinct 350

Precinct 350 is home to 5,711 registered voters in a vaguely triangular area in North Salem bounded by the Salem Parkway to the west and Interstate 5 to the east. Its most well-known feature is probably the Oregon State Fairgrounds.

Demographically, Precinct 350 is heavily Hispanic (I use that term here because it’s the term used by the U.S. Census) and low-income. Precinct 350 is made up mostly of census tract 5.02. According to the 2020 Census, 40% of tract 5.02 residents were Hispanic, compared to 28% county-wide. The median household income was $34,949, compared to $70,926 county-wide. Thirty-nine percent of residents in the precinct were below the poverty line, compared with 13% county-wide.

Dems are doing 189 votes, more than Munoz’s current margin, better in Precinct 350 than would have been expected based on 2022 results

In today’s politics, heavily Hispanic areas - HD 22 includes large pockets of Hispanic voters both in Salem and up north in Woodburn - are up for grabs. Precinct 350 is no exception. In 2022, Cramer, the Republican, lost the precinct by only 20 votes, 1,022 (49.5%) to 1,042 (50.5%) for Democrat Anthony Medina. Cramer won district-wide by 542 votes that year.

In 2024, of course a presidential year with higher turnout, Cramer has, so far, received 1,252 votes (46%) to Munoz’s 1,461 votes (54%) in Precinct 350. If Cramer had won the same Precinct 350 vote share this year as she did in 2022, she would trail Munoz by only 27 votes in the precinct and would be ahead district-wide by 33 votes.

The shift in Precinct 350 toward Democrats therefore can explain, on its own, why Democrats are poised to once again enjoy a supermajority in the Oregon legislature. Yes, other changes occurred in other precincts, but none so dramatic as that in Precinct 350.

Precinct 350’s decisive shift toward Dems in 2024 bucked local and national trends

The shift in Precinct 350 is, at least to me, counter-intuitive. Precinct-level changes between 2020 and 2024 are difficult, because the 2020 Census led to redrawing of precinct and district lines that only became effective beginning in the 2022 election.

Marion County, however, has shifted substantially toward the Republican at the top of the ticket between 2020 and 2024. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 1,070 votes in 2020. In 2024, the current count has Trump beating Kamala Harris by 3,105 votes. Republican gains in the county are, presumably, correlated to better performance among male Latino voters. Nationwide, Trump won 54% of Latino male votes in 2024 compared to 36% in 2020.

It’s possible Precinct 350 voters stayed put with the Democrats when other parts of of the county swung toward, at least, Trump. It’s also possible Precinct 350 voters did swing toward Trump but voted for the Democrat in HD 22. Or, there might be something else going on.

Non-affiliated voters disproportionately cast ballots subject to signature challenge

The Marion County Clerk’s office produced a list last week of 691 HD 22 voters whose ballots had, so far, been rejected because either the ballot envelopes lacked a signature or because the ballot envelope signature did not match the voter’s signature on file with the clerk. Comparing ballot envelope signatures to file signatures is the sole means by which Oregon, a 100% mail ballot state, determines the person who voted the ballot is the person who is registered to vote.

The registered voters whose ballots had signature issues were disproportionately not affiliated with any political party (Non-affiliated voters, or NAVs). Here’s the partisan breakdown of HD 22 voter registration versus challenged ballots by party:

Registration % Challenge %

Democrat 26.4% 20.1%

Republican 20.1% 8.5%

NAV 48% 58.9%

Why would NAV ballots have such a high rate of signature problems compared to those cast by Democrats or, especially, Republicans? NAVs typically vote less frequently than voters registered with a major party. Perhaps NAVs are less skilled than other voters with replicating their signatures on ballot envelopes, or are more likely to omit a signature altogether.

Or, there might be something else going on.

Motor voter plus ballot harvesting and HD 22

Oregon automatically registered to vote, until just prior to the 2024 election, anyone who applied for a driver’s license through the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles. Unless a voter registered through this “motor voter” system returns via mail a postcard received after the voter’s interaction with the DMV to indicate membership in a party, the voter is registered as NAV. As a result, huge numbers of NAVs have been registered statewide under Oregon’s motor voter law.

NAVs generally, and in particular motor voter-registered NAVs who expressed precisely zero interest in registering to vote but were registered anyway, turn out to vote less often than other voters. However, voter names and addresses are available to the public, meaning there are large reservoirs of motor voter-registered NAVs accessible to people who would like to convince them to vote.

Oregon allows a practice called “ballot harvesting,” wherein someone other than the voter may legally obtain the voted ballot from the voter and deposit it in an official voting location, on or prior to election day. Some other states forbid ballot harvesting altogether; others limit ballot transportation to family members. Oregon allows anyone to harvest ballots.

The progressive advocacy group PCUN, short for Pineros Y Campesinos Unidos del Noroeste (Northwest Treeplanters and Farmworkers United), headquartered at the northern end of HD 22 in Woodburn, paid employees to help Munoz win the district, including via door-knocking, also known as canvassing. Munoz, the Democrat, received $15,440.50 in in-kind contributions from PCUN, a leftwing advocacy group whose website says “we build a voice for Latinx immigrant families by ensuring Latinx voters turnout for BIPOC candidates[.]”

We know PCUN canvassed for Munoz in Woodburn, because it announced it was doing it. It also posted a video on Instagram providing instruction to “PCUNistas” on how to vote, in which a person marks a vote for Munoz on what appears to be an Oregon ballot.

We don’t know for sure whether PCUN or another Munoz-allied group canvassed for her in Precinct 350. We also don’t know whether PCUN offered instruction, or even assistance, to voters in Precinct 350 or elsewhere in HD 22 filling out their ballots or signing the ballot envelope. It’s entirely possible PCUN did none of that.

Or, canvassing by PCUN or another group might help explain the decisive boost Munoz received in Precinct 350, and the disproportionate signature challenges for Democratic and, especially, NAV voters, many of whom registered via motor voter, there.

A note on registering noncitizens to vote

Finally, the State of Oregon disclosed in September that it had registered noncitizens to vote via motor voter. The number of voters registered without providing proof of citizenship now exceeds 1,500. The The state has not released the identities or locations of affected registered voters, and claims that fewer than 10 of them actually have cast ballots since 2019. Governor Tina Kotek “paused” Oregon’s motor voter system just prior to the 2024 election while the state assesses the scope of the noncitizen registration problem.

Oregon requires no proof of citizenship whatsoever for voters who register outside the motor voter system.

No, I don’t know whether anything improper happened in HD 22

In summary, I don’t know whether anything improper occurred in HD 22, and unless hard evidence that would hold up in court is available, the outcome of an election stands. However, the race highlights how Oregon’s motor voter system, which indisputably floods the state with ballots voters never requested, combined with ballot harvesting could change the outcome of an important contest. It also creates a perfect storm of sorts highlighting Oregon’s recent travails with registering noncitizens to vote.

The dramatically disproportionate rate by which signatures on ballots cast by NAVs in HD 22 and, especially, Precinct 350, eludes easy explanation. Perhaps NAVs have signatures that change more over time than those of Democrats and Republicans.

Or, maybe HD 22 and Precinct 350 provide a really good case study to evaluate whether Oregon’s voting system works the way Oregonians want it to.