Republicans offer Oregon voters attractive alternatives to continued Democratic failure
While Democratic power-brokers consolidate behind failed governor Tina Kotek, Republicans will have a vigorous primary with multiple qualified candidates
Republicans face an uphill battle to win the Oregon governor’s race in November despite incumbent Tina Kotek’s disastrous performance. But they deserve credit for one thing that Democrats haven’t done: giving Oregonians a choice between multiple qualified candidates who bring different strengths and ideas to the campaign.
Kotek has not drawn any serious competitors in the Democratic primary despite failing to achieve the policy goals she set and instead leading Oregon on a mad-cap descent to the bottom of national rankings. On the other hand, she has kept her promise to vigorously oppose Donald Trump, and that might be enough to spend four more years in Mahonia Hall.
Here’s a look at the leading Republican candidates after the much-anticipated announcement this week that Chris Dudley will make a second run for the governor’s office. In 2010, he came closer to winning than any Republican since Vic Atiyeh’s successful re-election campaign in 1982. (Note: These are not the only Republican candidates and it’s possible someone else could become a contender before the May primary. But these three candidates have advantages over the others in terms of name recognition and the ability to raise money.)
State Sen. Christine Drazan
Drazan was the Republican nominee in 2022 and ran a credible campaign against Kotek, who should have been a stronger candidate then than she is now after a full term of failure. However, Donald Trump was not in the White House in 2022 and his overwhelming unpopularity in Oregon probably at least offsets Kotek’s failures. Unfortunately, Kotek might be harder to beat this time around because of the Trump factor.
So, the key question Drazan has to answer isn’t about policy positions or qualifications. It’s “What makes her a better candidate in 2026 than in 2022?” Some of her supporters say she’ll be stronger because independent Betsy Johnson isn’t in the race this time. I’m not convinced by that argument. It’s impossible to know who Johnson’s voters would have supported were she not on the ballot. Some certainly would have stayed home. Assuming 90 percent of the Johnson’s 168,000 supporters voted, Drazan would have needed more than 70 percent of them. That’s possible but not likely. And though they likely won’t have Johnson’s name recognition, there will be third-party options on the ballot.
A better argument is that Drazan learned from her first statewide campaign. That likely is true. But she did not run a bad campaign in 2022, so room for improvement is marginal.
Bottom-line: Drazan has a strong legislative record as a conservative who is willing to stand up to Democrats, best illustrated by her role in the 2020 Republican walkout when she was House minority leader. She also is well-accepted by the party establishment. But while these traits are seen as strengths by most traditional Republicans, it could be a weakness with the independents and moderate Democrats she needs to win a general election. Experience and proven resilience are her strengths. But is that enough?
Chris Dudley, businessman and former Trail Blazer
Dudley’s best case for primary voters is electability in the general election. He came closer to being elected governor than any Republican since Atiyeh. He has been mostly out of the spotlight since his 2010 loss, which has both advantages and disadvantages. The advantage is he hasn’t been forced to take stands on unpopular issues and cannot be tied to Trump as easily as the other candidates. The disadvantage is he hasn’t built up any trust with Republican voters, other than business-oriented Republicans.
If I were a Republican political consultant, I’d rather run a general election campaign for Dudley than any of the other candidates. A business-oriented outsider who can’t be directly tied to unpopular Trump policies is the ideal candidate in a State where Trump is loathed and the economy is crashing. However, I wouldn’t want to have the task of helping Dudley navigate the primary. He’s more moderate than the bulk of the party, especially on abortion which still matters in the primary, and his name recognition isn’t what it once was. It’s been more than 23 years since his last game in the NBA as a center for the Portland Trail Blazers.
State Rep. Ed Diehl
Diehl has less name recognition than Drazan and Dudley, but he has momentum thanks to his leadership role in gathering signatures to put Kotek’s unpopular transportation taxes on the ballot. Being known has a key figure in blocking those taxes would be a significant plus in a general election, because it’s an issue that appeals to the voters a Republican must reach to win - independents and moderate Democrats. But he’s probably the most conservative of the three front-runners (though there aren’t huge differences in him and Drazan). Democrats will find ammunition in his voting record to try to convince independents that even if they liked Diehl’s tax stand they won’t like his stances on other issues.
His biggest advantage might be the connections and data he gathered during the petition-gather drive to block the tax increases. It’ll help him target like-minded voters and get them to the polls. He probably has a lower floor than Drazan or Dudley but it’s possible to see a potential path to victory.
It’s easy to craft a narrative for any of these candidates explaining why they are a better option than Kotek, who lacking any positive accomplishments on key issues such as homelessness and education has no choice but to run a negative campaign against all things Trump and, by extension, any Republican candidate.
It’s tricky for any Republican candidate to explain why Trump shouldn’t matter so I’ll do it for them. Trump’s most aggressive immigration enforcement actions have been in blue cities in blue states with Democratic mayors and governors, specifically Minneapolis and Portland. There has been activity in red states, most notably in New Orleans, Louisiana; Memphis, Tennessee; and Charlotte, North Carolina. But those efforts did not create Portland/Minneapolis level of controversy. It’s possible, if not likely, that Trump would take a lighter hand in Portland and the rest of Oregon if we had a Republican governor.
Beyond immigration, most of Trump’s actions have been either beyond the purview of Oregon officials or irrelevant to the state. The threat of life in Oregon being worse if we don’t have a Democratic governor “protecting” us from Trump is minimal at most.
So, whoever you prefer among the Republican gubernatorial candidates, the real choice is this: What do you think is the bigger threat, the emotional peril of Donald Trump without a Democratic protector in Salem or the economic peril of four more years of free-fall under Democratic policies?
 | A guest post by
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I no longer live or vote in Oregon, but I was very involved in state and local politics for almost 40 years and was a registered Democrat all that time. I was a big supporter of Betsy Johnson, and still am.
The last two Democratic governors have been toxic, particularly on the issue I care about the most - criminal justice. If Johnson had not been on the ballot in 2022 I would have likely not cast a vote in that race, and I suspect I would not have been alone.
Measure 11, first passed in 1994 and its repeal was rejected by 76% of voters in 2000 brought a modicum of fairness to criminal sentencing and meant that a 17-year old rapist would receive a real prison sentence (8 years) although they would likely never leave the Oregon Youth Authority (because despite constant lies from the criminal lobby, felons under 18 when convicted of even murder did not get transferred to the adult Department of Corrections until they turned 26)..
But that all ended in 2019 when the Oregon Legislature betrayed victims and voters and repealed all the juvenile provisions of Measure 11 with Senate Bill 1008, and also effectively made all juvenile criminal proceedings secret - one reason you never read about crimes or their trials committed by felons under 18. Only two Democratic legislators voted against SB 1008 in 2019 - Betsy Johnson and Brad Witt.
The repeal just barely passed with the necessary 2/3rd vote required to overturn constitutional provisions passed by voters. Christine Drazan - for reasons unknown was "excused" and did not vote.
"Dudley ... [is] more moderate than the bulk of the party, especially on abortion which still matters in the primary."
The Oregon Republican Party has fatally pitted itself for decades now against social issues (abortion, same -sex marriage) which long before Trump guaranteed their losses in Oregon. They have been unable to understand or accept that if they want wins on business and the economy they need to let that go. Trump may be guaranteeing another win for the latest and worst iteration of the state's provenly incompetent Democratic Party.
The thought of another four years of which is almost literally painful.
One might reasonably conclude both parties prefer symbols over substance.