A word of caution. A recent petition drive at a local business to recall Governor Kotek was met with aggressive and scary liberal activists who intimidated those conducting the drive and the business who allowed the drive on their property. Be smart, safe, take pictures, work in numbers, and be on guard. We need to be bold and courageous and our numbers speak loudly.
Obstruction by the left is a hate America first tactic. The same people that denounce a king, whatever that means, and scream democracy is being trampled upon, want to deny your freedom to control taxation.
It is incredible to me to watch the very same democrats complain about the President being an authoritarian dictator, while at the very same time cheering on Queen Tina...
This is quite a dilemma for Gov. Kotek. She can veto this doomed bill and say, "We can do better." That will make the unions mad as she lays off state workers. Or she can keep the ODOT workers on the payroll and watch her credibility with the public plummet.
Or she can sign this unpopular bill into law causing its repeal to become the biggest issue on the November 2026 ballot on which she is running for reelection. She would need to defend this bill in debates with her Republican opponent who should repeat ad nauseum, "We can do better. Vote for me."
More proof that the Democrats are the party of totalitarianism, not democracy, as shown by the actions of the governor and her cronies. Obviously, these are regressive taxes that will damage working-class people, but will have very little effect on the rich or those who suck on the teat of government.
Sorry--but this one gives up the game: "The poll of 500 likely voting Oregonians was conducted by telephone, according to Riley Research and Associates, and has a 95% level of confidence and a +/- 4% margin of error."
Forget about the minute sample size; the tell is in the technique. Telephone polls are notoriously weak--no one under the age of 50 answers a blind call (thank you, iPhone), and no one will answer loaded questions from some strange outfit.
Pew research says: Declining response rates due to caller ID, robocall fatigue, and general reluctance to answer calls from unknown numbers can create nonresponse bias, meaning certain groups may be less likely to participate and thus skewing results.
Others note that, "...Geographic uncertainty arises since phone numbers can be portable and do not always indicate the respondent's actual location." My number indicates I live in Southern CA--I haven't since around 2010.
I disagree, Richard. Telephone polling (the alternative is online) is considered both more accurate and more expensive to conduct. Pollsters try to correct for non-response by weighting the responses from groups statistically less likely to answer the phone. It’s not perfect, of course, but they’re usually close. I think a sample of 500 statewide is pretty normal. I wrote this story precisely because after I read it I thought it was a good poll.
I agree with both Richard and Jeff, if I can split the baby. I detest my cell phone, it's a love-hate thing, and won't answer most numbers I don't recognize. On the other hand I find the over 50 group more likely to vote.and are more knowledgeable of the issues.
As expensive as campaigns are I'm confident candidates and petition authors weigh the value of every service purchased and penny spent.
The only polling group that’s relevant in Oregon are the big voting blocks of Progressive Socialists in the medium and big-sized cities. Who knows? Maybe even these voting blocks will have had enough of constant tax hikes and diminishing livability in the State.
As Jeff notes, this is a “science” just like actuarial data and work is a science. Yes true the ever changing world of polls, but high quality pollsters like insurance company’s continue to adjust their methods and tools and calculations. Science. In this case analytical data science.
Where does the Dec 30 deadline come from? We have 90 days from time bill becomes law (automatic by Nov 13) to collect signatures which takes us to Feb 11. Plenty of time to get meet deadline (July 2, 2026) to get on ballot for Nov 2026.
To clarify, the session adjourned Oct. 1. The deadline to submit signatures is 90 days after adjournment - thus, December 30.
Kotek, on the other hand, has 30 days, not including Sat/Sunday, which allows her until Nov. 12.
Thus, the 90 days is reduced by 42 days - Oct. 1 - Nov. 12 - before signature gatherers can start gathering signatures. Part of her dubious behavior is hoping Thanksgiving and Christmas will diminish signature gathering.
A word of caution. A recent petition drive at a local business to recall Governor Kotek was met with aggressive and scary liberal activists who intimidated those conducting the drive and the business who allowed the drive on their property. Be smart, safe, take pictures, work in numbers, and be on guard. We need to be bold and courageous and our numbers speak loudly.
Wise advice Neil.
Obstruction by the left is a hate America first tactic. The same people that denounce a king, whatever that means, and scream democracy is being trampled upon, want to deny your freedom to control taxation.
Let’s not be scared of these idiots
It is incredible to me to watch the very same democrats complain about the President being an authoritarian dictator, while at the very same time cheering on Queen Tina...
This is quite a dilemma for Gov. Kotek. She can veto this doomed bill and say, "We can do better." That will make the unions mad as she lays off state workers. Or she can keep the ODOT workers on the payroll and watch her credibility with the public plummet.
Or she can sign this unpopular bill into law causing its repeal to become the biggest issue on the November 2026 ballot on which she is running for reelection. She would need to defend this bill in debates with her Republican opponent who should repeat ad nauseum, "We can do better. Vote for me."
I think that this is a very insightful analysis of Kotek's concerns and her options for dealing with them.
...and sadly note that not a one of them seems to be concerned with the wishes of the people she governs.
No one ever accused her of being smart, Richard.
More proof that the Democrats are the party of totalitarianism, not democracy, as shown by the actions of the governor and her cronies. Obviously, these are regressive taxes that will damage working-class people, but will have very little effect on the rich or those who suck on the teat of government.
Great call to mobilize.
I’m in Klamath Falls - where do I sign?
Sorry--but this one gives up the game: "The poll of 500 likely voting Oregonians was conducted by telephone, according to Riley Research and Associates, and has a 95% level of confidence and a +/- 4% margin of error."
Forget about the minute sample size; the tell is in the technique. Telephone polls are notoriously weak--no one under the age of 50 answers a blind call (thank you, iPhone), and no one will answer loaded questions from some strange outfit.
Pew research says: Declining response rates due to caller ID, robocall fatigue, and general reluctance to answer calls from unknown numbers can create nonresponse bias, meaning certain groups may be less likely to participate and thus skewing results.
Others note that, "...Geographic uncertainty arises since phone numbers can be portable and do not always indicate the respondent's actual location." My number indicates I live in Southern CA--I haven't since around 2010.
I rest my case.
I disagree, Richard. Telephone polling (the alternative is online) is considered both more accurate and more expensive to conduct. Pollsters try to correct for non-response by weighting the responses from groups statistically less likely to answer the phone. It’s not perfect, of course, but they’re usually close. I think a sample of 500 statewide is pretty normal. I wrote this story precisely because after I read it I thought it was a good poll.
I agree with both Richard and Jeff, if I can split the baby. I detest my cell phone, it's a love-hate thing, and won't answer most numbers I don't recognize. On the other hand I find the over 50 group more likely to vote.and are more knowledgeable of the issues.
As expensive as campaigns are I'm confident candidates and petition authors weigh the value of every service purchased and penny spent.
The only polling group that’s relevant in Oregon are the big voting blocks of Progressive Socialists in the medium and big-sized cities. Who knows? Maybe even these voting blocks will have had enough of constant tax hikes and diminishing livability in the State.
Judicial watch sued OR to clean their voter rolls. Anyone know if that was done?
Any bets the corduroy jacket wine sipping crowd bemoan anything conservative in public but vote their wallet in private?
Hey lay off the coduroy its a good fabric can't help it if the odd schmuck wears it
😅
I'm old enough to remember as a youngster wearing corduroy pants, dark brown if memory serves me.
Still have a couple pair very comfortable
As Jeff notes, this is a “science” just like actuarial data and work is a science. Yes true the ever changing world of polls, but high quality pollsters like insurance company’s continue to adjust their methods and tools and calculations. Science. In this case analytical data science.
From the headline, it appears that Jeff is eager for repeal like most Oregonians.
Clever, Richard!
in the meantime Kotek continues to run rampant.
Funny that Tina Kotax was chasing Donald Trump around Asia. Now watch her claim victory on increased farm commodity sales DJT negotiated.
Can’t stand her/him, which is it?
🤷🏻♂️
Hey Tina, drop the chopsticks and get your BUM back to Salem and sign the bill!
Where does the Dec 30 deadline come from? We have 90 days from time bill becomes law (automatic by Nov 13) to collect signatures which takes us to Feb 11. Plenty of time to get meet deadline (July 2, 2026) to get on ballot for Nov 2026.
It comes from a reading of Oregon law. Deadline to submit signatures is 90 days from adjournment of special session, which is Dec 30.
To clarify, the session adjourned Oct. 1. The deadline to submit signatures is 90 days after adjournment - thus, December 30.
Kotek, on the other hand, has 30 days, not including Sat/Sunday, which allows her until Nov. 12.
Thus, the 90 days is reduced by 42 days - Oct. 1 - Nov. 12 - before signature gatherers can start gathering signatures. Part of her dubious behavior is hoping Thanksgiving and Christmas will diminish signature gathering.
Yep, exactly.