As the latest Public Employee Retirement System projections show, Oregon’s effort to slow the growth of PERS costs have failed and any future solution will be painful
Decades of governmental malfeasance has led to where we are today. The question is whether there is a strong leader in Oregon that will emerge to get us back on the path to improvement or whether we will continue to elect charlatans that continue to prioritize virtue signaling, unions, illegals and environmentalism to the detriment of the state
Let's start by cutting police and fire departments. We can save a bundle by outsourcing ambulance rides to Uber. The close relations PPB has with ANTIFA open lot of doors as ANTIFA has been directing traffic around the ICE building with excellent results. Repairing roads has been counterproductive because it encourages people to drive cars. Since our jails are mostly empty we can convert them to BNB's. Our experiment with legal pot shows the possibilities for storefront heroin dealers. The customers should have no shortage of cash since we won't be wasting money on police so mugging people will be even lower risk than it is now. The now empty storefronts could become dress shops specializing in men's sizes . Think of the tax revenue. And let's say a special thanks to the judges who determined the state cannot change a contract with public employees (who judges just happen to be) but the state CAN change, and control ,the contracts of private parties like... landlords. Capitalist scum that they are. In fact, that's another potential source of revenue. A state takeover of rental housing. Fear not. The future is bright comrades.
The odds of finding someone in the Democratic Party Machine who will "step up to the plate" is nil to zero. This is not the kind of thing most personality types drawn to politics specialize in. Look elsewhere.
If you read beyond our local legacy media, you'll find that France and the UK are now going through what awaits Oregon...unstable governments (a fifth PM in a row quit in France after one month of the job; the UK is functionally broke and healthcare is a bottomless pit).
In Portland, meanwhile, a near-majority of socialist councilors are talking about "social housing," which means government-supported public housing that will, among other things, be off the property-tax rolls. (The only affordable housing being built in Portland is already doing this, with for-profit builders using nonprofits as fronts.)
High-income taxpayers are fungible; they will move, as New York, New Jersey, and California have proved. They will leave behind those who cannot leave--the more government-dependent who don't pay much in taxes but instead soak up social welfare budgets.
Not good news. Don't expect legacy media to get serious about this story. They're too interested in telling everyone how utterly wonderful Portland is--except for "just one block."
Oregon reminds me of South Africa, a country in decline because all the productive workers have left. And the remaining radicals refuse to take responsibility for the violence and general economic decline. May I make a modest proposal? Require all retired state employees to work 20 hours a week. I’m guessing most of them are bored playing golf by now, and we would solve the problem of having enough road workers to fill the potholes.
The taxpayer was not at the negotiation table for that Tier 1 or 2 benefits. Said Tier 1/2 recipients also brow beat taxpayers into paying more tax and then jump across the Columbia when they retire to avoid paying taxes.
The self licking Oregon government ice cream cone continues to lick while the tax payers go hungry.
How has PERS not managed to at least keep up after the Great Recession? Boomer money has pushed the stock market upwards endlessly since. More than enough to move PERS a bit towards the black; certainly not for it to remain insolvent or get worse.
Wasn't there an article in WW that detailed how the PERS fund manager decided not to just stick with index funds but instead invest in private equity and other long-term guaranteed losing options?
Unwise investment decisions haven't helped, but the terms of money match and the guaranteed returns PERS recipients get even in down market years make it almost impossible to "keep up."
Absolutely on both counts. It was a loaded system guaranteed to fail due to the returns paid out vs. market income. The guy running PERS currently deciding to go in on Private Equity Funds, claiming they beat the market when that's been absolutely disproven over the long term, doesn't help and it looks like he's dug an even deeper hole.
Should have been tied to a market wide, balanced index fund from the get go. Now we have a mess we're not going to be able to afford to bail ourselves out of. I expect high income earners and those close to retiring to leave the state in response.
There is no practical way out for the state and its residents. We can reasonably expect a gradual exodus to states with more viable futures, and we can also expect a further reduction in new residents.
If I could get out, I would. I say this not as a statement of distaste for leadership, but simply to optimize my own assets, and those of my family. It wouldn't matter if progressive democrats or reactionary conservatives were to blame. What matters is that I, as a small invester, would do better elsewhere. I had a very good run from the mid-80s to about 2015. To optimize I'd need to slow-motion arbitrage assets for a new start.
I understand that the state Treasurer is WOKE and funnels investment strategies into Green projects and steers away from carbon anything. This means they look for friendly ESG funds. It's everywhere! WOKE-ISM seems to have affected almost everything in our lives. It's sick, it's cultish and it has to stop. The Democrat party is insane. Thank you.
The PERS debacle is an example of why lobbyists should be eliminated AND term limits MUST be introduced.
The LEGAL conspiring of public employees representatives (lobbyists) regarding the guaranteed (!) retirement returns of public employees with a group of other public (elected legislators) employees is an OUTRAGE
I’ve watched this go on for decades
When do we wake up to the hard truths that are staring us in the face?
Fourteen years ago, then-Gov. John Kitzhaber created a Commission on Public Safety. Its purpose was to find a politically palatable way to overturn Measure 11, Oregon’s minimum-mandatory sentence law approved by voters in 1994.
Kitzhaber stacked the committee with sympathizers like then-State Supreme Court Chief Justice Paul De Muniz and then-state Sen. Jackie Winters (whose late husband was an ex-felon). Why was Kitzhaber so keen on overturning Measure 11, which required truth in sentencing and targeted violent criminals?
To save money. Nobody mentioned PERS, but it was well-known by the state’s politicians where the PERS debt was headed. As Craig Prins, then-Executive Director of the state Criminal Justice Commission, testified, Measure 11’s drop in violent crime mostly benefited “the poor and destitute” since they are typically the victims of violent crime.
Decades of governmental malfeasance has led to where we are today. The question is whether there is a strong leader in Oregon that will emerge to get us back on the path to improvement or whether we will continue to elect charlatans that continue to prioritize virtue signaling, unions, illegals and environmentalism to the detriment of the state
.
Let's start by cutting police and fire departments. We can save a bundle by outsourcing ambulance rides to Uber. The close relations PPB has with ANTIFA open lot of doors as ANTIFA has been directing traffic around the ICE building with excellent results. Repairing roads has been counterproductive because it encourages people to drive cars. Since our jails are mostly empty we can convert them to BNB's. Our experiment with legal pot shows the possibilities for storefront heroin dealers. The customers should have no shortage of cash since we won't be wasting money on police so mugging people will be even lower risk than it is now. The now empty storefronts could become dress shops specializing in men's sizes . Think of the tax revenue. And let's say a special thanks to the judges who determined the state cannot change a contract with public employees (who judges just happen to be) but the state CAN change, and control ,the contracts of private parties like... landlords. Capitalist scum that they are. In fact, that's another potential source of revenue. A state takeover of rental housing. Fear not. The future is bright comrades.
This would be so funny if the actual situation wasn't so sad
You do good work, Mark. Good to see you in the public policy debate.
Ditto. Always excellent work, Mark!
The odds of finding someone in the Democratic Party Machine who will "step up to the plate" is nil to zero. This is not the kind of thing most personality types drawn to politics specialize in. Look elsewhere.
If you read beyond our local legacy media, you'll find that France and the UK are now going through what awaits Oregon...unstable governments (a fifth PM in a row quit in France after one month of the job; the UK is functionally broke and healthcare is a bottomless pit).
In Portland, meanwhile, a near-majority of socialist councilors are talking about "social housing," which means government-supported public housing that will, among other things, be off the property-tax rolls. (The only affordable housing being built in Portland is already doing this, with for-profit builders using nonprofits as fronts.)
High-income taxpayers are fungible; they will move, as New York, New Jersey, and California have proved. They will leave behind those who cannot leave--the more government-dependent who don't pay much in taxes but instead soak up social welfare budgets.
Not good news. Don't expect legacy media to get serious about this story. They're too interested in telling everyone how utterly wonderful Portland is--except for "just one block."
Oregon reminds me of South Africa, a country in decline because all the productive workers have left. And the remaining radicals refuse to take responsibility for the violence and general economic decline. May I make a modest proposal? Require all retired state employees to work 20 hours a week. I’m guessing most of them are bored playing golf by now, and we would solve the problem of having enough road workers to fill the potholes.
The taxpayer was not at the negotiation table for that Tier 1 or 2 benefits. Said Tier 1/2 recipients also brow beat taxpayers into paying more tax and then jump across the Columbia when they retire to avoid paying taxes.
The self licking Oregon government ice cream cone continues to lick while the tax payers go hungry.
How has PERS not managed to at least keep up after the Great Recession? Boomer money has pushed the stock market upwards endlessly since. More than enough to move PERS a bit towards the black; certainly not for it to remain insolvent or get worse.
Wasn't there an article in WW that detailed how the PERS fund manager decided not to just stick with index funds but instead invest in private equity and other long-term guaranteed losing options?
Unwise investment decisions haven't helped, but the terms of money match and the guaranteed returns PERS recipients get even in down market years make it almost impossible to "keep up."
Absolutely on both counts. It was a loaded system guaranteed to fail due to the returns paid out vs. market income. The guy running PERS currently deciding to go in on Private Equity Funds, claiming they beat the market when that's been absolutely disproven over the long term, doesn't help and it looks like he's dug an even deeper hole.
Should have been tied to a market wide, balanced index fund from the get go. Now we have a mess we're not going to be able to afford to bail ourselves out of. I expect high income earners and those close to retiring to leave the state in response.
Greatly appreciate your writing, Mark!
The Progressives continue to buy government employees votes at the expense of the working public.
Some day we will find it’s Trumps fault.
There is no practical way out for the state and its residents. We can reasonably expect a gradual exodus to states with more viable futures, and we can also expect a further reduction in new residents.
If I could get out, I would. I say this not as a statement of distaste for leadership, but simply to optimize my own assets, and those of my family. It wouldn't matter if progressive democrats or reactionary conservatives were to blame. What matters is that I, as a small invester, would do better elsewhere. I had a very good run from the mid-80s to about 2015. To optimize I'd need to slow-motion arbitrage assets for a new start.
I understand that the state Treasurer is WOKE and funnels investment strategies into Green projects and steers away from carbon anything. This means they look for friendly ESG funds. It's everywhere! WOKE-ISM seems to have affected almost everything in our lives. It's sick, it's cultish and it has to stop. The Democrat party is insane. Thank you.
Are legislators still on PERS? If so, good luck with changing it
Better call Trump! 🤣🤣
At this point, even California seems more attractive.
Yikes Odyssus, that's a scary statement.
The PERS debacle is an example of why lobbyists should be eliminated AND term limits MUST be introduced.
The LEGAL conspiring of public employees representatives (lobbyists) regarding the guaranteed (!) retirement returns of public employees with a group of other public (elected legislators) employees is an OUTRAGE
I’ve watched this go on for decades
When do we wake up to the hard truths that are staring us in the face?
Fourteen years ago, then-Gov. John Kitzhaber created a Commission on Public Safety. Its purpose was to find a politically palatable way to overturn Measure 11, Oregon’s minimum-mandatory sentence law approved by voters in 1994.
Kitzhaber stacked the committee with sympathizers like then-State Supreme Court Chief Justice Paul De Muniz and then-state Sen. Jackie Winters (whose late husband was an ex-felon). Why was Kitzhaber so keen on overturning Measure 11, which required truth in sentencing and targeted violent criminals?
To save money. Nobody mentioned PERS, but it was well-known by the state’s politicians where the PERS debt was headed. As Craig Prins, then-Executive Director of the state Criminal Justice Commission, testified, Measure 11’s drop in violent crime mostly benefited “the poor and destitute” since they are typically the victims of violent crime.
Yesterday in a story The Oregonian downplayed (the paper was too busy giggling over people in green frog costumes harassing employees at ICE), it turns out that bureaucrats are now allowed to give prison inmates early release — without notifying victims. See: https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2025/10/hundreds-of-oregon-prisoners-see-sentences-shaved-by-days-even-years-under-new-court-ruling.html
After reading The Oregonian’s story, I went back and looked at what I wrote in 2011: https://www.heldtoanswer.com/2011/10/deep-in-the-heart-of-oregon/
Looks like the spirit of Kitzhaber’s Commission on Public Safety lives on. A prison sentence means nothing.
As usual, nobody mentioned PERS. But it’s all about saving money.
Easy fix for PERS; give them all the ODF timber lands; now that we aren't logging them their "intrinsic" value has got to be gigazillions