Is Oregon’s economy bad enough to swing an election?

It’s hard to find reasons for optimism in Oregon’s economic numbers, but for voters the key factors will be their personal circumstances and how much they value economic stability

Portland is the 12th least affordable city in America, according to Payscale.com. (Photo of Portland area meat by Mark Hester).

How bad is Oregon’s economy? This should be the No. 1 question voters ask before this year’s statewide elections, because even if you prioritize cultural issues over economic issues (and clearly many Oregonians do), everyone has an economic pain point they won’t tolerate.

By just about any measure, Oregon is nearing the pain threshold for anyone who isn’t a public employee.

Look at Oregon’s trajectory and standing relative to other states on just about every significant economic measure:

• Oregon’s December unemployment rate of 5.2 percent was better than only two states - New Jersey and California. Broader employment statistics are even more alarming. The Portland region ranked fourth-worst among metro areas for job losses/gains in 2025, with a decline of 8,800.

• Business bankruptcies in Oregon rose 25 percent in 2025, almost four times faster than the national average.

• Even companies that aren’t filing bankruptcy are struggling. Intel and Nike powered Oregon’s economy through the 1990s and early 2000s. Both have struggled recently, and there are no new companies on deck to replace them as the marquee attractions for the Oregon economy.

• More than one-third of offices in the Portland urban core were vacant late last year. That and other factors led an influential real estate group to rate Portland as the second worst commercial real estate market in the nation, ahead of only Hartford, Conn.

• Migration is, at best, stagnant. With birth rates falling just about everywhere in the United States, Portland has become unattractive to newcomers at exactly the time it most needs to attract them.

• Cost of living, once a plus for Oregon, no longer helps much. Yes, Portland is cheaper than Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles. But nationally, Portland ranks as the 12th least affordable city, in part because of high housing costs and in part because wages are lower than in many other high-price cities.

As bad as these economic statistics are, they don’t necessarily predict how Oregon’s economy will fare in the near future, much less during longer time horizons. Reputable economists can, and have, disagree.

Earlier this month, EcoNorthwest presented one of the more negative assessments to the Portland Metro Chamber of Commerce’s annual State of the Economy breakfast. Economist Mike Wilkerson offered a blunt assessment: “We are in a recession.” And, he added, “Unless we’re willing to do things differently, we should expect the same outcomes.”

The previous week, the state Office of Economic Analysis published its most recent economic and revenue forecast, which was at least a few degrees more optimistic in tone. The state economists said they did not see “significant evidence” that current economic conditions “signal the beginning of a recession.”

So, who should voters believe and what should they look at to determine the condition of the economy? I’m not qualified to choose between the opinions of trained economists. But I can offer some context and advice for interpreting economic data.

First, it’s important to note that the economists mentioned above largely based their conclusions on the same data. While the data offers a clear verdict on current conditions, predicting the future is a much more subjective exercise - whether the topic is economic conditions or the weather.

Second, their reports were prepared for different audiences. The state economic forecast is a foundation for the state revenue forecast. Both are presented to the Legislature, but it’s the revenue forecast that tells legislators how much money they can spend. And optimistic economic forecasts generally lead to more robust revenue forecasts (though the correlation isn’t linear.) EcoNorthwest, in contrast, produced its report for the Portland Chamber, which is lobbying for changes in state economic policies. So, it’s fair to have some skepticism about motives for both sets of conclusions.

Third, and most important, both reports look at macroeconomic conditions. This is an aggregate view of the economy, and one that doesn’t necessarily mirror voters’ personal experiences. For example, while 5.2 percent unemployment is high compared with the nation now, it’s below the average for the past 25 years in both Oregon and the nation. And for the the 94.8 percent with a job it’s much less of a concern than for the 5.2 percent without one. That’s why inflation (rising prices) is the most politically potent economic issue. Rising prices influence everyone, though they hit hardest on those with the least money to spend.

So, what should voters look at when assessing the economy.

First, they should look at what they know best, their own economic circumstances. If prices are rising and your bank account is near zero, you really don’t need to debate when or if Oregon will enter a recession. You have more immediate concerns.

Second, look at the totality of economic conditions. When examined individually, it’s possible to find reasons to believe some of the economic indicators above will improve soon with the right decisions. The commercial real estate market probably is the least likely to rebound to a healthy level, but it also directly affects fewer people than the other indicators. However, I agree with Wilkerson that it’s hard to believe enough of Oregon’s economic foundation will improve to stabilize the economy without policy changes. There just are too many cracks.