Brown's Business Lockdowns Haven't Worked

This one probably won't either.

Bend, Oregon’s iconic Pilot Butte Restaurant closed permanently in April 2020, during Gov. Kate Brown’s first of several orders closing restaurants to indoor dining.

Photo: Ryan Brennecke/The Bulletin

Oregon Governor Kate Brown closed restaurants to indoor dining and otherwise limited business and personal interaction in 15 counties, accounting for more than 2 million Oregonians, effective today. A close look at the interplay between restriction levels and Covid cases in one relatively typical Oregon county indicates, at least to this non-scientist, that there is little to no correlation between restriction levels and Covid counts. We, as voters and citizens, now have enough real world information to draw common sense conclusions about what works and what doesn’t. Business restrictions haven’t worked, or at the very least haven’t worked well enough to justify their enormous human and economic toll.

Because the rules have been, since May 2020, state-mandated but county-specific, i.e. different counties have different levels of restrictions depending on the prevalence of Covid within that county at any given time, it’s most instructive to look at one county’s experience over time. I picked Deschutes County because it’s a big enough county that its numbers aren’t too skewed by a random workplace outbreak, and it’s one of the counties landing on the naughty list today. Also, it’s a nice place with nice people, especially the lawyers.

What I’m about to do is go through a timeline of fluctuating restrictions since the beginning of the pandemic through present day, and compare changing Covid case counts. I’d urge you to open the New York Times tracker page on another tab in your browser and you can follow along as you like. Or, you can just read.

The case numbers I rely upon are the seven-day average of cases per day. In other words, on day x, the seven day average of five cases would mean that over the preceding seven-day period, there were an average of seven newly reported Covid cases per day.

Hang with me through this. It’s worth it.

Deschutes County reported its first Covid case on March 11, 2020. Between March 11 and March 23, there were a handful of cases, with the seven-day average remaining at one.

On March 23, 2020, Brown issued her Stay Home, Save Lives executive order, which closed restaurants to in-person dining, restricted the operation of “non-essential” retail establishments, and banned most social gatherings. On that date, there were no new cases reported in Deschutes County, and the seven-day average was one case.

Between March 23 and May 15, the date on which Deschutes County entered Phase 1 of Brown’s phased reopening plan, the county’s seven-day average was between one and four. This timeframe represents the most severe restrictions of the pandemic to date.

In Phase 1, restaurants were allowed to open to indoor dining subject to capacity restrictions, and some previously shuttered retail establishments were permitted to reopen. Deschutes County entered Phase 2, which marginally increased capacity limits in restaurants and other businesses, on June 6. Deschutes County remained in Phase 2 until Brown instituted her two-week “freeze” on November 17.

With restaurants open to in-person dining in this period of May 15 until November 17, Deschutes County cases fluctuated from very low until July, with an uptick in mid-July to mid-August peaking at a seven-day average of 15 cases per day. The case counts then declined to a seven-day average of two cases per day in mid-September. Note that there were no new restrictions implemented prior to or during the August to September decline.

Beginning in mid-September the county saw a gradual increase and then a plateau of around 15 average cases per day beginning in early October and continuing to the end of October, at which point a significant increase in cases began. A corresponding statewide increase is what eventually triggered Brown to issue her freeze. There was no change in restriction levels just prior to the September uptick or the surge that began at the end of October. Deschutes County restaurants were open to in-person dining, and businesses open at relatively high capacity from May 15 until the fall increase began.

Perhaps the best argument for the efficacy of the business restrictions comes following the institution of the freeze. County cases continued to increase rapidly until December 1 at a seven-day average of 69 cases per day, about two weeks after the freeze began, at which point they abruptly leveled off, then declined. This is the kind of reaction I gather epidemiologists are looking for after they institute restrictions.

However, after declining for several weeks, at the end of December they increased sharply again, once again peaking at a seven-day average of 69 cases on January 14. In the meantime, on December 3, Brown issued her new risk-level system to replace the freeze. Deschutes County entered the program at the extreme risk level. Restaurants remained closed to indoor dining but were allowed to open for outdoor dining and retail restrictions were actually tightened.

After the January 14 peak, cases declined rapidly once again. There was no change in business restrictions preceding that sudden and mostly unpredicted decline. On February 12, the county moved from extreme risk to high risk, which allowed restaurants to reopen for indoor dining, and relaxed restrictions on retail businesses and gyms. Cases continued to decline. The months-long decline in cases bottomed out on March 22 at a seven-day average of eight cases, and began to rise from there

On March 26, four days into the ramp-up of cases the county continues to experience, the county moved from high risk to moderate risk, allowing greater capacity in restaurants and other businesses. On April 9, the county moved from moderate to high risk. Cases continued to increase. Today, Deschutes County heads back into extreme risk. Yesterday there were 125 new cases reported in the county.

What should those of you who didn’t nod off during that lengthy Covid history lesson make of this? That the fluctuating business restrictions don’t seem to have had much of an impact on case counts in Deschutes County. There wasn’t a jump in cases once the county reopened in May. There was a small increase in mid-summer that both began and ended without any change in restrictions. The big fall run up was not preceded by changing restrictions. The December peak was but the ensuing decline was rapidly reversed without the addition of indoor dining, and after the tightening of other business capacity limits. Then the second peak ended without any preceding changes at all. And the spring increase began more than a month after indoor dining was reopened, and four days before the county reached its most relaxed designation of moderate.

Simply put, the track record in Deschutes County does not justify the institution of new restrictions. The restrictions, if they have any effect on spread, are but one of many factors, and are clearly do not determine Covid outcomes in any kind of reliable way.

I can feel the incoming emails already, so let me clarify. This position is not anti-science. I am quite certain that the epidemiologists, who know far more about Covid than I do by orders of magnitude, are right to think that Covid can and probably does spread in restaurants (although the state apparently doesn’t track that information). It’s an airborne virus that spreads much more easily inside than outside, after all.

However, epidemiologists aren’t any better at evaluating human behavior and incentives than any of the rest of us are. It may be that any public health benefit of closing restaurants and adding business restrictions is that people hang out together, in their homes, more. Without masks and without businesses highly incentivized, legally and financially, to operate in a safe manner.

Also, sure, maybe the restrictions don’t work because people don’t follow them, particularly the restrictions on social gatherings. I’m sure that’s true, but what will be different this time, especially when a lot of people are vaccinated (33% of Deschutes County) and Covid fatigue is mounting. And if the problem is with non-compliant social gatherings, why tighten the grip on businesses, which are generally strongly motivated to comply with the rules?

And, finally, yes, the July-August modest increase and the post-Christmas mini-spike may have been caused by people gathering for holidays. There are clearly factors involved in the rate of spread unrelated to business restrictions, but that’s my point. I can’t say that restrictions have no impact, in fact I’d bet they probably do at the margins. However, if they had a material impact, we would see the significant case number turnarounds correspond with the big changes to restrictions. That’s just not been what’s happened in Deschutes County, or Oregon.

Whatever the case, the restriction level does not correspond well at all to the spread of Covid in the manner Brown suggests. At the very least, any effect cannot justify the economic and social harm caused by business restrictions and closures. Brown should reverse her decision, or the legislature should reverse it for her, and allow restaurants and other businesses to continue to operate.