A disastrous poll for Oregon Democrats
More evidence for a potential red wave in the Beaver State
My intention this week was to write about something other than the mood of the electorate and the upcoming midterm election. After all, I wrote most recently about the likelihood that Republicans would do well in the midterms, including in Oregon. But then last week I read the most shocking poll of Oregon voters I have ever seen and realized I needed to go back to the well this week. It’s not every day a poll comes out that makes Oregon look like, and I do not overstate this, a Republican state. Doubt me? Behold:
Yes, that finding results from a poll of Oregon, not Idaho, voters who prefer a generic Republican gubernatorial candidate over a Democrat by 18 points. Like I said, shocking.
Before diving further into the poll, some disclaimers are in order. This poll, conducted by DHM Research out of Portland for Oregon Public Broadcasting, is just one poll. (Note that DHM asked the same governor race question of Oregon voters in January that gave generic Democrat a 40-31 lead over generic Republican.) Polls can be wrong for various reasons. The fact that some of the results of this poll are inconsistent with prior polling and with the commonly understood nature of the Oregon electorate indicates some degree of skepticism is in order. I talked to a couple friends who work in Republican polling about this poll, and they indicated it was likely “optimistic,” but in the same general ballpark as internal polling they’d conducted.
There are other reasons to believe the poll bears at least some semblance to reality. DHM Research is a non-partisan and highly regarded polling firm that’s been conducting polls in Oregon for decades. Its client on this project, Oregon Public Broadcasting, has, shall we say, no ideological or partisan interest in manufacturing the appearance of a remarkable rightward shift in the Oregon electorate. I can only imagine the internal meetings at OPB, and OPB’s communications with DHM, when they saw this puppy. It’s to OPB’s credit that they ran it anyway, even if doing so may have led to a sudden spate of Subarus and Volvos ending up in roadside ditches around the state.
Enough with the disclaimers. Let’s take a closer look at the poll results. Astute observers will note that the Republican vs. Democrat matchup is not really what Oregon voters will face in November. There will be a Democratic nominee, a Republican nominee (each to be determined via voting in contested party primaries concluding May 17), and also Betsy Johnson, who is running as a candidate unaffiliated with any party. Here’s what it looks like when you throw an “independent” candidate into the mix:
Generic Republican is still in the lead, with generic Democrat in third place. Respondents’ distaste for generic Democrats is reflected in their views of actual Democrats. Sixty percent have a “very negative” view of Democratic Governor Kate Brown, and former president Donald Trump is viewed more favorably than is President Joe Biden and Democratic U.S. Senator Ron Wyden.
Yeah, I had to triple-check the Trump/Biden comparison too. Recall that Biden beat Trump by 16 points in Oregon just 16 months ago.
There’s more trouble for Democrats in the issues voters care most about. Voters are most concerned about homelessness, “government, leadership” and public safety. Only four percent of voters think climate change is the biggest issue facing Oregon. Racism and related issues do not even appear on the list.
This presents a problem for Democrats in that a lot of what they’ve talked about over the past two years is, well, it’s climate change and racism. And, worse, they are the leaders of the government and, specifically, they control cities that have experienced the largest increases in homelessness and concerns about public safety. Republicans, and Betsy Johnson, are campaigning on those issues for good reason, and it appears Oregon voters agree.
Surely a major cause of Oregon voters’ discontent is the fact that they have quite negative views about the state’s economy. These numbers are really bad news for the party in power.
Sixty-five percent of respondents believe economic conditions in Oregon are either poor or very poor; 62% believe those conditions are getting worse. Ouch. Funny enough, OPB argues against the voter sentiment expressed in its own poll: “Nearly two-thirds of voters rate Oregon’s economic conditions as “poor” or “very poor,” but economists say the state has roared back from pandemic-driven disaster.” Nothing to see here, move on, is not likely to cheer up voters whose buying power has plummeted recently due to inflation.
Crime is very much on the minds of Oregon voters, another problem for the party in power, key members of which rather famously called for defunding the police, and releasing convicted criminals from prison.
OPB dutifully blames Republican candidates in Oregon for creating the perception of an increase in crime “even when the data disagrees.” This sentence, in particular, might just sting come Wednesday, November 9:
“Polling suggests plenty of voters share Republican candidates’ preoccupation with crime.”
Republican candidates did not cause voters to think crime is increasing. Republican candidates in Oregon have been unable to convince voters of anything for quite some time. Rather, those candidates are reacting to legitimate voter concern. Calling voters dumb for believing their lying eyes about what’s happening in their communities is, well, it’s a strategy. But it’s not going to work.
Oregon is not, suddenly, a Republican state. There are lots more Democrats in Oregon than Republicans and, at the end of the day, partisanship carries a lot of weight in voting decisions. Moreover, Oregon Republicans are not known for taking advantage of opportunities. As one particularly knowledgeable friend told me in response to an inquiry about the poll, “Republicans will find a way to f*** it up.” Indeed, they very well may.
I wager, though, that there are plenty of Beaver State Democrats who read this poll and got that cold feeling in the gut when you realize you’ve been presented with confirmation of your worst fears. If Democrats pretend voter sentiment about the economy and crime - even if a relatively extreme version of that sentiment is reflected in the DHM poll - is illegitimate or unfounded, they will have contributed to what already looks like a very good year for Republicans in Oregon.
The one constant in recent years, my friends, is constant and dramatic change. Change is coming to Oregon. The question is only how much.
surely MORE Oregonians are feeling the sad way Brown has governed.
Really interesting to see homelessness and public safety in the top tier of concerns yet education and mental health are in the lower end of the spectrum, which in my opinion have a direct correlation to the problems we are facing in the former, in Oregon and beyond.